cross-posted from dKos
I realized I've been having a number of conversations about how election night is actually going to go, ranging from whether or not I can sneak in the gym between work and a party, to who should plan a vacation day on Wednesday to stay with late-breaking results.
So to get the information together, I did some quick breakdowns on when polls start closing, and here it is. The plan relies on the election being pretty stead from here to election night; obviously, that's a huge assumption.
Knock on wood. And get to work. I realized I spent way too much time here imagining an Obama win without contributing to it.
To start, we're going to look like this:
Opening Map
7:00pm EST/ 4PM PST:
Blue States Closing:
Vermont (3 EVs)
Red States Closing:
South Carolina, Kentucky (16 EVs)
Swing States closing:
Virginia, Indiana, Georgia (39 EVs)
What 7:01 will be like
701
McCain fans: enjoy 7:01. Most likely, the networks will announce that McCain has the early lead, 16-3, with the swing states too close to call. In fact, it's at least possible that McCain will be leading 31-3, with Georgia coming in early for Team Red.
However, these are the keys to watch. Virginia might end up with a large enough Obama lead to come in, turning the score to 16-16. If Virginia is called that early, we're going to have a fun night. Similarly, if we get to 7:30 or so without a call on Indiana or Georgia, it also means a good night is brewing for Obama - McCain shouldn't have to worry about those states even being in play.
In the Senate, we'll hear an announcement of Mark Warner's victory around 7:01, our first of the night. I'd be surprised if we heard anything from Chambliss-Martin this early, and if Kentucky is too close to call, we're having a good night.
7:30PM EST/ 4:30PM PST
Blue States Closing (none)
Red States Closing (none)
Swing States Closing (25 EVs):
West Virginia
Ohio
What 7:31 will be like
7:31
Ohio will not be called early - if the Networks rush it, they'll have no stories for the rest of the evening. However, they'll enjoy keeping an eye on down-to-the-wire West Virginia. "Too Close to Call" there, rather than "Too Early" might be the best sign of a landslide we'll get.
Look for a Virginia call around here, while Georgia will probably come up McCain at this point. Indiana will likely still be out.
Score: McCain 31 Obama 16 Toss-Up 36
8:00PM EST/ 5:00PM PST
Blue States Closing (79 EVs):
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington, DC
Maine
Maryland
Massachussetts
New Jersey
Illinois
Red States Closing (33 EVs)
Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Swing States Closing: (63 EVs)
Pennsylvania
Missouri
Florida
New Hampshire
What 8:01 will be like
8:31
The scoreboard leaps to Obama 91 McCain 64 Toss-Up 99. Meanwhile, Mississippi, let's hope, will not announce a Republican Senate hold, as we keep fighting there. Meanwhile, Ohio and West Virginia might still keep us guessing for a little while.
8:30PM EST/ 5:30PM PST
Blue States Closing (none):
Red States Closing (6 EVs):
Arkansas
Swing States Closing (15 EVs):
North Carolina
What 8:31 will be like
8:31
Shaheen might get her victory called in around here. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire will come up Blue by now, though Missouri and Florida will still be counting, along with Ohio, Indiana, and West Virginia.
Scoreboard: Obama 116 McCain 70 Toss-Up 89
9:00PM EST/ 6:00PM PST
Blue States Closing: 72 EVs
New York
Rhode Island
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Red States Closing: 70 EVs
Kansas
Louisiana
Arizona
Nebraska
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming
Swing States Closing: 14 EVs
Colorado
New Mexico
What 9:01 will be like
9:01
Scoreboard: Obama 188 McCain 140 Toss-Up 103
Time to start getting antsy. This could be enough time for the networks to call Ohio and Florida, which wouldn't lift Obama past the finish line, but essentially end the election.
9:00 is about the earliest they could officially call the election, though of course, once Obama gets to 215 EVs or so, we'll know it's ours as soon as California closes. But to repeat, the earliest victory we can hope for is here, with Obama winning:
Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachussetts, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. However, I think it's very unlikely that North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana would be ready to call here, even if they all came up Blue.
On the Senate side, Kay Hagan might know by now, and the Udalls might as well. Probably too soon for Franken.
10:00PM EST/ 7:00PM PST
Blue States Closing (7 EVs):
Iowa
Red States Closing (5 EVs):
Utah
Swing States Closing (7 EVs);
Nevada
Montana
What 10:01 will be like
Obama 209 McCain 150
10:01
10:00 isn't an exciting closing time, but by the close of prime time on the east coast, we may have elected a President. I'm going to guess West Virginia will be red by now - barring a huge landslide, but with Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico showing blue, McCain will be out of options, and just waiting for the West Coast to push Obama over the top.
Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina are all still counting votes on the East Coast, but at this point, it will be apparent that even if McCain sweeps them, he will not have the votes.
Musgrove, Lunsford, and Martin will all be getting near the judgement hour by now, as we find out what are chances are at a 60 seat majority.
11:00PM EST/ 8:00PM PST
Blue States Closing (73 EVs)
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Red States Closing (4 EVs)
Idaho
Swing States Closing: (3 EVs)
North Dakota
What 11:01 will be like
It's time for a call from the Associated Press, if we haven't gotten it already. We'll see this map:
11:01
At least. But by now, we'll probably have heard from some of our east coast friends. Here's a reasonable guess of what the board will look like during the concession speech.
11:02?
But don't go to bed yet! We'll have one more announcement coming after Midnight.
12:00 AM EST/ 9:00PM PST
No closings
I said after midnight. But look for the last few swing states to come in around now, if they come in overnight.
12:01
1:00 AM EST/ 10:00PM PST
Red States Closing (3 EVs):
Alaska
That means it's time for Mark Begich to take us to 60, as we hunker down to see what happens as Martin, Lunsford, and Musgrove take our count overnight.
Here's one last map.
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